I'll write more regarding the mission statement of this blog, but for now I'll just mention that this blog will focus solely on sports news and insights that can be statistically validated.

Specifically, I will be using the Win Score metrics developed by Dave Berri et al, the writers of The Wages of Wins (Berri is the primary author of the WOW blog found in my 'links' section.

I have studied Win Score and compared it to various other statistical metrics, and find it to be a cut above the rest. If you disagree with some of the results of the metric, then I recommend biting your tongue until you have taken the time to understand it first.

Ok, on to the first post. It's a short one. Yesterday, the Cleveland Cavs (my team) defeated the LA Lakers 98-95. The AP write up of the game predictably focused on the duel between LeBron James and Kobe Bryant, the NBA's two leading scorers. This makes sense, since sportswriters are, ultimately, artists (or perhaps craftsmen), and they try to tell the most compelling story. In the words of the story: "LeBron James won his personal matchup with Kobe Bryant, the league's two leading scorers".

Well, LeBron certainly won the duel if all you do is focus on their scoring output. But there are many other aspects to a basketball game. It is widely accepted that 'Role Players' fulfill, well, necessary roles on the court (ie roles other than scoring). Consequently, 'Star Players' can contribute in the same ways as 'Role Players' in addition to their scoring, and the more they contribute in these areas the better they are, overall.

This is what the Win Score metric is all about. I have put together a somewhat simplified version of the metric - it's not exact, but it's very close. I won't get into the details now - you can visit the WOW site to find out everything you'll need.

What I have calculated is WP48, or Wins Per 48 minutes. So, if a player performs at a certain level for 48 minutes, they will produce a certain amount of wins. An average performance is a WP48 of .100.

As much as it pains me to say it, Kobe had the better game yesterday.

WP48
LeBron: .217
Kobe: .488

Both players shot the ball at close to a 50% rate, but Kobe had the edge in terms of rebounds, assists and turnovers. Rebounds and turnovers, in particular, are extremely undervalued in the mainstream sports press.

Thus ends the first post. I am not sure exactly what types of posts I will put on this blog, and it may take me a while to get going because I have another blog (the Lost on Purpose link - a music site), but I just might start posting my own version of 'Player of the Week' or 'Big Game of the Week', all based on the WOW metrics.

Then again, I might pick a game a day and do a more 'rational' write up than the one found in AP reports (or on Sportcenter).

I guess this wasn't such a short post after all.