Yesterday the Dallas Mavericks defeated the Memphis Grizzlies 103-84. The AP write up states that Memphis was "led by Rudy Gay with 18 points". Also, on the Yahoo Sports scoreboard page, Rudy's line of 18 pts, 4 reb and 1 ast is the only one shown for the Grizzlies.

However, Kyle Lowry's line was 17 pts, 5 reb and 4 ast in similar minutes (both were the only Memphis players with over 40 mins). Was this actually the better line?

It sure looks like it on the surface, but of course we need to dig deeper. For starters, Gay scored his 18 points on 7-14 shooting, while Lowry only connected on 5-14 shots. So now it looks like things swing back in Gay's favor.

But what really matters is the relative value of each of these stats. What also matters - a great deal - are the other stats recorded in the box score.

For instance, Gay recorded one steal, but had two turnovers. It's clear that a steal is basically the opposite of a turnover, so his net is one turnover. It's important to remember that that turnover lead to a Dallas possession that may have resulted in a shot and perhaps, points.

Lowry, on the other hand, recorded three steals and zero turnovers. In other words, he netted three extra possessions for his team that may have resulted in points.

Ok, we can go back and forth for a while longer, but it's clear that Gay had the better shooting night while Lowry performed better in regards to most everything else.

I calculated the WP48 for each player:

Lowry: .173
Gay: .023

Average is .100, so it's clear that Lowry did much more to help his team win than did Gay.

Important note: there is a position adjustment in their WP48 scores. In this case we are comparing a PG to a SF, which is sort of like comparing apples to oranges. PGs play a 'risky' position, because PGs turn the ball over more and shoot worse than the other positions on average. So Lowry is credited because he played better than the average PG in comparison to how well Gay played compared to an average SF. Gay actually slightly outperformed Lowry if you ignore the position adjustment.

In other words, the Grizzlies got more production out of the PG spot relative to an average PG than they got out of the SF relative to the average SF.

Dave Berri at the Wages of Wins has posted on each of these players' career averages. These are the WP48 for each player through 16 games this season:

Lowry: .185
Gay: .019

And these are their WP48 from all of last season:

Lowry: .292*
Gay: -.035

*Lowry only played 170 minutes last year.

So far, Lowry seems to be quite a productive point guard. Gay, on the other hand, has been a consistently unproductive small forward. Yesterday's game, despite being such a small sample, fell in line with the historical data.

Still, Gay was credited with 'leading' Memphis because he scored the most points.